Oil above $110. Global South bears the cost. Trust in US security guarantees is eroding. International norms are crumbling.
Browsing: Oil
Oil revenues double. US munitions deplete. Russia’s great-power image suffers. Innovation lags. Putin still trusts Trump on Ukraine.
Iran uses cheap drones against expensive interceptors. Oil revenues rise. Hormuz closure hurts neighbors more. Tehran learns leverage.
A 10% energy price rise would increase global inflation by 40 basis points. Asian states pivot to nuclear, coal, and renewables amid crisis.
Iraq loses up to $280 million daily. A pipeline through Jordan to Egypt’s Mediterranean coast would bypass Hormuz and Red Sea vulnerabilities.
Brent crude spikes 25%, Brazil’s corn and fertilizer imports face disruption, and the region absorbs economic fallout while lacking political agency.
Markets price a quick exit. But physical energy constraints, systemic economic risks, and lack of unified strategy suggest a prolonged, structurally disruptive conflict ahead.
No coalition stands with Washington. Strategic drift, domestic economic pressures, and unreliable analogies reveal a war of choice without coherent vision.
Hormuz closure causes largest oil supply disruption in history with no 2022-style rerouting options, forcing global demand destruction.
Hormuz Strait’s 20 million daily oil barrels and 20% global LNG make it the world’s most consequential energy chokepoint.