Iran kept its leverage. The US guarantee frayed. Gulf states hedge: rearm, diversify, and talk to Tehran.
Browsing: Geopolitics
Lebanon challenges Hezbollah. Can Iraq and Yemen follow? Aoun speaks, but the world watches from a distance.
Hormuz is Iran’s tested weapon. No military reopening. Tolls and linkage diplomacy follow.
Iran reopened the strait, but the US blockade stays. Prolonged enforcement risks escalation, legal challenges, and degraded global force readiness.
Iran’s true doomsday weapon: the strait. Easy to close. Nearly impossible to reopen.
Iran imposed the Lebanon ceasefire. Israel’s Iron Wall doctrine has failed. A historic strategic defeat.
Four Iran war scenarios. The strait and China decide whether US primacy erodes or a global contest ignites.
Unresolvable nuclear demands and Hormuz control gaps make US-Iran grand bargain structurally unlikely.
U.S. military overextension in Iran provides China a strategic opening to expand Indo-Pacific influence and dominate the global transition to renewable energy.
Spain’s anti-genocide stance cracks European unity, challenging Israel’s political and colonial narratives directly.