Iranian militias strike Iraq’s oil fields, targeting US and Chinese firms. Western investment is at risk; Iraq’s energy dependence on Iran may persist.
Browsing: Editor’s Choice
Eighty-three percent of Iranian strikes hit Gulf states. The region’s safe-haven brand is shattered, and the risk premium is now permanent.
Gulf states endured Iranian retaliation for a US-led system they could not openly acknowledge. The pretense of ambiguity has become its principal weakness.
US-Israel lost. Iran kept power and Hormuz. Gulf states exposed. American public support for Israel fractures.
U.S.-Iran ceasefire expires amid threats. Four scenarios: interim deal, extension, fragile pause, or regional war.
Dual U.S.–Iran blockades around Hormuz defy precedent, and neither side can count on a quick or decisive outcome.
No outcome of the Iran war preserves Gulf primacy; every scenario leaves them more vulnerable and strategically diminished.
Financial stress, munitions shortages, and political gridlock doomed U.S. efforts to keep Hormuz open.
Cairo’s neutrality is driven by economic crisis and the need to avoid a war it cannot afford to fight.
Both Washington and Tehran insist they’re winning, but shifting facts and rising risks suggest neither narrative reflects the war’s unstable reality.