Disarming Hezbollah is unattainable. Excluding its political base guarantees the Lebanon ceasefire will fail.
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DDR model for Hezbollah: phased disarmament, state monopoly on force, and Israel-Lebanon peace talks.
Dollar safe haven holds—but only because US energy and arms production insulate it from war shocks.
Iran war diverts global focus from Sudan. Less pressure on belligerents means more violence, not peace.
Soft power is not enough during active war. Indonesia and the Gulf must shift to political mediation.
Not a clash of civilizations. Russia and China backed Iran. Muslim states backed the US.
Iran kept its leverage. The US guarantee frayed. Gulf states hedge: rearm, diversify, and talk to Tehran.
No victor in Iran war. US credibility frays. Gulf hedges. China waits to gain.
Hormuz is Iran’s tested weapon. No military reopening. Tolls and linkage diplomacy follow.
Periodic Iran strikes won’t work. Iran is not Hamas. The strait becomes a permanent weapon.