U.S. envoys should use the threat of military strikes to press Iran for nuclear, missile, and human rights concessions.
Browsing: Policy Brief
China used economic ties and support for Iran to exploit post-Arab Spring instability, turning the region into a key front in US‑China competition.
Egypt is pushing Saudi-Eritrea security ties to counter UAE-Ethiopia cooperation, highlighting a complex Red Sea rivalry and shifting regional alliances.
U.S. ambiguity on the PMF risks Iraqi stability and elections, demanding clearer support for sovereignty.
China values Iran for oil and anti‑U.S. alignment but offers no security guarantees, prioritizing its own stability above Tehran’s regime.
Iran relies on oil sales to China for nearly 90% of its export revenue, funding its nuclear and missile programs. The U.S. must crack down on the “Axis of Evasion,” using secondary sanctions and diplomatic pressure to cut off this financial lifeline.
Beijing’s influence grows when regional dynamics offer easy wins but reverses quickly during instability. With no core interests at stake and foreign policy a lower priority, China adopts a passive approach, unable to shape events when diplomatic statements prove insufficient.
This interpretation of Staatsräson has muted Germany’s response to Israeli war crimes and blocked EU sanctions, undermining Europe’s credibility. Berlin’s decisive vote could enable measures to pressure Israel, reinforcing EU strategic agency instead of sabotaging it.
Despite security reforms and bureaucratic rebuilding, public trust remains fragile. Success now hinges on delivering economic improvement, drafting an inclusive constitution, and fostering local reconciliation to address deep societal fractures and consolidate the post-Assad state.
The system is consuming itself as the U.S. discards the legitimizing frameworks that once amplified its power. This unconstrained unilateralism prompts allies to hedge and rivals to harden, accelerating global fragmentation rather than consolidating American dominance.