China is not arming Iran. Weapons shipments would violate Beijing’s non-interference policy and strategic interest in staying out of the war.
Browsing: Policy Brief
GOP senators seek an AUMF for the Iran war rather than ending it. Democrats see a trap: forced political ownership of an unpopular conflict.
Trump’s public fixation on a deal weakens U.S. leverage and jeopardizes already fragile Iran negotiations.
A mutual end to Hormuz blockades could unlock stalled U.S.–Iran diplomacy and stabilize global energy markets.
US military leverage against Iran is fading. Trump’s dwindling options demand patient allied diplomacy.
China’s Iran war role is norm promotion, not decisive influence; great-power framing misleads.
Soft power is not enough during active war. Indonesia and the Gulf must shift to political mediation.
Pakistan deepens Gulf military ties and US-Iran mediation, yet gets caught between Saudi and Emirati rivalry over regional alignment.
Ghalibaf’s pragmatic nationalism aligns with Vance’s populism, but Trump’s bluster and hawkish pressure threaten negotiation viability.
Islamabad remains the only credible intermediary for Washington and Tehran as backchannel diplomacy supersedes formal negotiations.