Dollar safe haven holds—but only because US energy and arms production insulate it from war shocks.
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Iran war diverts global focus from Sudan. Less pressure on belligerents means more violence, not peace.
Soft power is not enough during active war. Indonesia and the Gulf must shift to political mediation.
Not a clash of civilizations. Russia and China backed Iran. Muslim states backed the US.
Iran kept its leverage. The US guarantee frayed. Gulf states hedge: rearm, diversify, and talk to Tehran.
No victor in Iran war. US credibility frays. Gulf hedges. China waits to gain.
Hormuz is Iran’s tested weapon. No military reopening. Tolls and linkage diplomacy follow.
Periodic Iran strikes won’t work. Iran is not Hamas. The strait becomes a permanent weapon.
Iran’s true doomsday weapon: the strait. Easy to close. Nearly impossible to reopen.
Four Iran war scenarios. The strait and China decide whether US primacy erodes or a global contest ignites.