Russia’s renewed security cooperation with Syria’s new government risks restricting Israel’s military freedom of action and complicates regional dynamics.
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Syria remains a key front in the U.S.-Russia rivalry; preventing its fragmentation is essential to blocking Moscow’s path back to regional influence.
Adversaries have learned they can fracture Western alliances and control strategic chokepoints by staying below retaliation thresholds. This convergence allows China to secure shipping lanes, Russia to gain naval bases, and Iran to project power through proxies like the Houthis.
Despite Iran’s crucial drone support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, Moscow offered no military aid after attacks on Iranian nuclear sites. The Kremlin’s treaty with Tehran does not obligate defense, revealing Russia’s limited capacity and reluctance to open new fronts.
The Trump-mediated deal hinges on Armenia amending its constitution—a risky referendum slated for 2027. With Russia undermining the process and Azerbaijan’s patience waning, sustained Western support is needed to lock in peace and counter Moscow’s spoiler tactics.
Cuba serves as Russia’s gateway for exporting IT and testing non‑Western payment systems in Latin America. Though trade is modest, Moscow sees Havana as a vital geopolitical symbol; its loss would discredit Russia’s multipolar ambitions and damage its strategic credibility.
“The success of the Houthis, who have paralyzed about 12 percent of international trade, distracting the West, suits the Russian side just fine. Moscow is not prepared to risk its remaining allies for the sake of international stability.”
“The international system of strategic stability continues to teeter on the brink of total collapse. Russia’s nuclear-powered weapons are intended to play the same role as tactical nuclear weapons: a way to offset U.S. superiority in conventional precision-guided munitions.”
While Tartus and Khmeimim remain active, Russia’s dispersed airbase network in Libya, including Maaten al-Sarra, is now more critical for power projection. These sites facilitate Africa Corps deployments and arms flows, complicating U.S.-led efforts to unify Libya and stabilize the Sahel region.
The 2025 NSS marks a fundamental departure from post-WWII American leadership, embracing a multipolar order that risks fragmenting the transatlantic community. As Washington refocuses on the Western Hemisphere and China, Europe must urgently transform the EU into a credible military power to avoid strategic irrelevance.