The day after Khamenei will be an IRGC-managed power struggle, not liberation; real change requires a second, contested phase.
Browsing: Khamenei
The Islamic Republic has lost competence and credibility, relying solely on violence. Khamenei’s eventual exit may catalyze change, but democratic hope rests with internal civil activists—not exiled opposition or foreign intervention—who understand Iran’s complex political economy.
Khamenei’s succession could pave the way for a “Third Republic” led by a military strongman from the IRGC. Such a transition from clerical to authoritarian-military rule would reflect the regime’s failing legitimacy and the erosion of its founding ideology.
Iraqi Kurds are questioning the selective use of American air defenses. Despite legislative promises to equip the Peshmerga, the failure to intercept missiles targeting civilian homes—while protecting distant targets—has fueled deep resentment and fears of being secondary strategic priorities.
The regional drive to disarm non-state actors has sparked a fierce sovereignty debate in Iraq. As Lebanon’s military secures its borders, Iraqi officials struggle to balance state-building goals against powerful militias that view their arsenals as non-negotiable shields against foreign occupation.
Russia is arming Tehran with Spartak vehicles and Mi-28 helicopters to fight domestic insurgency. As Trump threatens military strikes, the Kremlin is studying Iran’s internet blackouts while positioning itself as a potential sanctuary for the fleeing clerical elite
Iran is trapped in a violent cycle as the rial’s value plummets and inflation soars. With over 500 dead, the Pezeshkian government faces a terminal legitimacy crisis, compounded by President Trump’s threats of military intervention against the regime.
Sadjadpour outlines five trajectories for Iran, ranging from a Russian-style nationalist strongman to a Chinese-style pragmatic autocracy. He argues that without an organized liberal opposition, the post-Khamenei era will likely be defined by military dominance or grievance-driven illiberal populism.
Tehran is grappling with a “geopolitical winter” as its regional hegemony is structurally erased. From the “Trump Route” in the Caucasus to the collapse of Levant proxies, coordinated external powers are systematically isolating the leadership and blocking its strategic maneuvers.
Tehran is trading its strategic independence for Russian protection, securing a $25 billion nuclear agreement and Su-35 fighters. As UN sanctions return, Russian-led infrastructure projects now serve as “safe zones” intended to physically discourage further bombing of Iranian territory.